摘要：摘要：中国是一个外贸顺差大国，出口对于中国来讲意义重大。但近些年伴随着经济的发展，出现了人口老龄化加剧、人口出生率下降、人口受教育程度提高等现象，中国劳动年龄人口结构正在发生着质和量的改变。本文以 2000-2020 年中国 ( 不含港澳台地区 )人口统计数据构建多元线性回归方程，并进行统计检验、逐步回归和 Breusch-Godfrey LM 自相关检验，对我国劳动年龄人口结构变动如何影响出口商品结构的影响因素进行分析。研究表明：6 岁及以上人口接受高中及以上教育的比重和城镇化率，这两个指标反应人口质量的指标，与中国出口商品结构是正相关关系，且影响较为显著。而劳动年龄人口所占比重、人口自然增长率与总抚养比等反应人口数量的指标，前两个与出口商品结构是正相关关系，最后一个是负相关，但是他们三个都没有经过 T 检验。但在逐步回归分析中当把这三者剔除后，回归方程的拟合度又降低了。因此，我们可以得出中国劳动年龄人口变动中，质量的变动比数量的变动对出口商品结构的影响更大。
Abstract:China is a large country with foreign trade surplus, and exports are of great significance to China. However, with the development of economy in recent years, there have been some phenomena, such as population aging, birth rate decline, population education level increase, etc..The structure of China's working-age population is undergoing qualitative and quantitative changes. In this paper, multiple linear regression equations were constructed based on the demographic data of China (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) during 2000-2020, and statistical test, stepwise regression and Breusch-Godfrey LM autocorrelation test were conducted. To analyze the influence factors of how the change of labor age population structure affects the export commodity structure. The research shows that: the proportion of the population aged 6 and above receiving high school education or above and the urbanization rate, these two indicators reflect the population quality, and have a positive correlation with the structure of China's export commodities, and the impact is significant. As for the indicators reflecting population size, such as the proportion of working-age population, natural growth rate of population and total dependency ratio, the first two are positively correlated with the structure of export commodities, while the last one is negatively correlated, but none of them has passed the T-test. However, when these three factors are removed in stepwise regression analysis, the fitting degree of regression equation decreases again. Therefore, we can conclude that in the change of China's working-age population, the change of quality has a greater impact on the structure of export commodities than the change of quantity.