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目标偏差与经济发展 Target deviation and economic development

作者:刘淑云

院校:暨南学院

摘要:摘要:中国实施“经济发展指标”是一项重要的政策举措,它是国家主导下的一项重要举措。本文以2004-2017年274个城市为样本,对指标偏差对我国城市的经济发展产生的作用进行了较为全面的研究。结果表明:目标偏差对我国的经济发展有明显的影响,并且这个结论在一套稳健的实验中仍然有效。实证分析发现,由于经济发展目标偏差会导致实体资本的增加速度下降,从而导致实体经济的增长速度下降。在中国情况下,通过实证研究和实证分析,可以很好地说明了标的偏差对投资的负面效应,进而可以间接地证明,由于其触发了市场主体对风险的预测,导致了对经济发展的负面作用。扩展性研究发现,目标偏差对经济发展的影响主要表现在目标偏低、经济下行和高市场化水平区域.
Abstract: China's implementation of "economic development indicators"is an important policy measure, it is an important measure led by the state.In 274 cities from 2004 to 2017, the effect of index deviation on the economic development of cities in China is studied comprehensively. The results show that the target deviation has obvious influence on China's economic development, and this conclusion is still valid in a set of robust experiments. Empirical analysis found that the deviation of the economic development target will lead to the decline of the increase rate of thereal capital, which leads to the decline of the growth rate of the real economy. In the case of China, through empirical research and empirical analysis, it can well explain the negative effect of the underlying deviation on investment. And in turn. it
can indirectly prove that it has a negative effect on economic development because it triggers the prediction of risks by market subjects. The extended study found that the impact of target deviation on economicdevelopment is mainly reflected in the areas with low target, economic downturn and high market level.

关键词

经济发展的指标;偏离的指标; ;不确定的 indicators of economic development;deviated indicators;uncertain

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