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当前位置: 首页 >> 中文期刊 >> 教育理论与实践 >> 2025 >> 1

学龄人口变动对基础教育资源配置的影响及应对策略研究

作者:林楚汐

院校:湖南财政经济学院(湖南 长沙 410205)

摘要:本研究基于中国人口结构转型背景,系统分析了学龄人口变动对基础教育资源配置的影响机制及应对策略。通过整合第七次人口普查数据(2020)及教育统计年鉴(2015-2023),采用队列要素法预测显示:2025-2035 年我国义务教育阶段学龄人口将缩减 16.9%,但城镇化进程导致 76.3% 的减少量集中在农村,而东部城市群学龄人口仍保持年均 1.2% 增长。研究发现资源配置存在显著”时空差”——学校布局调整滞后人口变动 3-5 年,农村小规模学校生均成本达城镇 3.2 倍,而城镇学位缺口年均扩大 7.8%。针对教师编制弹性不足(调整系数仅 0.38)、财政转移支付边际效益递减等问题,提出构建”教育人口智能监测平台”、实施”教师编制银行”省级统筹、推行”教育用地红线”制度等创新策略。案例研究表明,深圳龙岗区学位供给改革可使大班额比例下降 25.6 个百分点,而甘肃临夏州小规模学校整合使生均成本降低 41%。研究为优化教育资源时空配置、促进教育公平提供了理论和实践依据。

关键词

学龄人口变动;基础教育资源配置;城乡差异;教师编制弹性;教育财政;人口流动

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参考

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